Nato

Quelle Nato

“Nato brings together 28 sovereign countries from Europe and North America, consulting and cooperating in the field of security and defence. … Nato members have pledged to support each other against attack, … which asserts that an attack against one is an attack against all”, says Nato. To the left is a map showing Nato’s eastern border in calm colors.

Before 1991        Quelle Wikipedia

   Before the Iron Curtain fell (and red ended, in the other map), the eastern border line was much further to the West.
   Normal Europeans don’t even know where exactly the Baltic states are. Just ask, if Latvia or Lithuania is further to the East. Or ask for the name of the Northmost Baltic country, a member of the EU and Nato as well: Estonia.
   I’d guess an average American doesn’t even know of their existance.
   My question: Has anybody in Nato been asked personally if they want to guarantee for these contries? Democratically? After all: In case of a “crisis” it may become a matter of life and death …
   The Baltic states have significant Russian minorities. In Latvia fourty percent of the children are taught at school in Russian. Elsewhere, in Ukraine the fights between Russians and Ukrainians in the Donbass region have originally been triggered by the Russian minority, when Kiev passed the law “On the principles of the state language policy” in July 2012 (*ps). Similar uprisings may threaten peace in the Baltic states. Not Nato nor “Europe” have influence on local nationalisms. In cases of minority language dissent, Russia is or will be called for help. 
   We read: Lithuania plans a wall around Russian Kaliningrad. Where is Kaliningrad? 

After the Berlin Crisis in 1961 I saw a graffito « Mourir pour Berlin? », die for Berlin?,  on the medieval wall of  Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer in the Camargue. An American, will she or he want to die for, say, Gusev (Gumbinnen)? – Well, he won’t have to, as that’s not Nato there. But for Klaipėda (Memel) in Latvia, hundred miles to the Northwest via Sovetsk (Tilsit), they would have to, in case of trouble with Russia.Would a German fight for Sovetsk? But he’s just lost it – perhaps not so recently, on January 20, 1945  (engl. link), and you can still buy Tilsiter cheese in every German supermarket.
   What did Nato think by adding all these countries? “Bigger is better”? 

Estonia      25% Russians of 1.3 Mio. inhabitants
Latvia        26% Russians of 2 Mio. inhabitants
Lithuania   5% Russians, 1% Belarusians (different language!)
                                             of 2.8 Mio. inhabitants
Ukraine     17% Russians – but that’s a large county with over 40 Million people, and not yet a Nato member+).                                       (For Andrew Denison)

Danger scenario: 1. Language (ethnic) intolerance in a Nato county towards local Russians, 2. They seeking help from Russia, 3. Russia morally required to help by threat or force, 4. Nato having to step in – war.
   Counterexample: South Tyrol (Italy) with a regional German majority asking Austria for help. Peaceful language agreement achieved after years of negotiations.

Siehe auch NZZ »Ist Europas Sicherheit in Gefahr?« Ende März 2017 und »Vielvölkerstaat Ukraine – wie viel Russisch darf’s denn sein?«

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*ps. On September 28, 2017, NZZ reports in its international edition that Ukraine narrows minority rights – again … («Die Ukraine schränkt Minderheitenrechte ein» von Ivo Mijnssen, Moskau) 

+) https://www.nzz.ch/international/wenn-die-sprache-des-nachbarn-nervt-ld.1320975: »Rund 40 Prozent der Ukrainer lernen Russisch als Muttersprache.« – About fourty percent of Ukrainians learn Russian as their mother tongue. 
   Rechts, was die Botschaft der Ukraine zum Thema Russisch schreibt, klickbar und so dann vergrößerbar. “No civil war in Ukraine”, says the official Ukraine …

– Did you notice that Austria is not a Nato member. This is due to the perpetual neutrality Austria had promised when it became free in 1955. More here.

post script Februar 2018. »Der Friede ist so zerbrechlich wie noch nie. Die Welt ist voller Kriege. Nur erkennen wir sie oft nicht mehr. Das macht sie noch gefährlicher. Von Herfried Münkler«, NZZ vom 17.2.2018, hier. Politikprofessor Münkler beschreibt den sich wandelnden Kriegsbegriff seit dem Westfälischen Frieden von 1648. Am Ende gibt er zu bedenken: »Im ›Tallinn Manual‹ der Nato sind solche Attacken [durch ›zivilrechlich camouflierte Akteuere‹ wie im Donbass] unterhalb eines Cyberwar eingestuft, um den Eintritt des Bündnisfalls zu vermeiden.« Hier das Dokument.